The winner of the US presidential election could have a sweeping impact on the contentious relationship between the world’s two largest economies and rival superpowers.

But in China, where election news is filtered through heavily censored state and social media, the focus has been more on spectacle than substance – with a sense that no matter who wins, the tensions of the US-China relationship will remain.

Part of the reason for that may well be a consensus in China – from policymakers down to regular citizens – that the die is cast for a US administration that wants to constrain China’s rise on the global stage, regardless of whether Vice President Kamala Harris or former president Donald Trump wins.

Trump’s last term saw the Republican slap tariffs on hundreds of billions worth of Chinese goods, launch a campaign against Chinese telecoms giant Huawei and use racist language to describe the virus that causes Covid-19, which was first identified in China.

The past four years under President Joe Biden have seen a tone shift and effort to stabilize communication. But US concern about China’s threat to its national security has only deepened, with Biden targeting Chinese tech industries with investment and export controls, as well as tariffs, while also appearing to sidestep longstanding US policy in how he has voiced support for Taiwan – a “red line” issue in the relationship for Beijing, which claims the self-ruling island democracy as its own.

Meanwhile, people in China have seen their economic prospects dim as the country has struggled to fully rebound following its stringent pandemic controls amid a wider slowdown and property market crisis, among other challenges.

So, while the presidential campaigns are still playing across China’s daily news coverage and online discussions, interest in the candidates and their policies appears muted compared with past US elections.

“(It) doesn’t matter who it is (that wins),” one social media user wrote in a popular comment on China’s X-like platform Weibo. “Their containment of China won’t ease.”

Watching the ‘turmoil’

As the campaigns unfolded over recent months, Beijing’s state media has honed in on social discord and polarization in the US.

In recent days, the top post under the “US election” hashtag on Weibo has been about American concerns over potential post-election violence. The post, by an arm of state broadcaster CCTV, cites survey data from US media.

A recent cartoon from state-owned newspaper China Daily circulated in domestic media showed the Statue of Liberty being crushed in the jaws of a dragon labeled “political violence.”

“All walks of life in the United States are highly nervous, and public opinion is in turmoil,” reporters from state-run news agency Xinhua wrote in a recent dispatch, which also noted that “as political polarization and divisions in public opinion intensified in this year’s US election, political violence has also intensified.”

A magazine affiliated with Xinhua has alternatively portrayed the elections as “lacking hope,” being ultimately decided by “invisible forces” of power, like Wall Street.

Some nationalist bloggers have published videos and posts at times gleefully playing up what they describe as the potential for a post-election American “civil war” – rhetoric echoed in chatter on social media platform Weibo, which is heavily censored and largely dominated by nationalist voices.

While picking up genuine concerns reported by American and international media in what has been a contentious and violent US election cycle, the coverage and conversation appears geared to telegraph the superiority of China’s own political system. There, China’s ruling Communist Party has an iron grip on political power and discourse.

But despite the coverage, many in China have also keenly observed the democratic process – and pointed out the contrast to their own.

“There’s no perfect system, but at least they allow people to question them,” one social media user said on Weibo.

Candidate of choice?

Both Harris and Trump have been hot topics on Chinese social media platforms.

Harris appeared to be relatively unknown to Chinese social media users prior to becoming the Democratic candidate after Biden’s July withdrawal from the race.

Since then, many posts and videos on Tiktok’s sister video app Douyin have mocked the vice president, for example picking on her laugh – in line with what is often a chauvinistic tone on China’s social media platforms and echoing comments made by Trump himself.

Some posted clips of Harris’ speeches have a positive spin, however. Those point to her middle-class background and rise to the second-highest American office, a contrast to today’s China where the top echelons are stacked with men who often hail from politically elite families.

“This is a true ordinary person’s story,” read one comment with hundreds of likes posted under a video with a clip of a recent Harris speech.

Trump has at times captured tongue-in-cheek admiration across the Chinese internet. As president he earned the nickname Chuan Jianguo, or “Trump, the (Chinese) nation builder” – a quip to suggest his isolationist foreign policy and divisive domestic agenda were helping Beijing to overtake Washington on the global stage.

But after the tumult of the past eight years, Trump fever appears to have cooled.

“People are not optimistic about these two candidates … as their image and abilities can’t compare to those of past figures,” said Wu Xinbo, director of the Center for American Studies at Shanghai’s Fudan University. That’s one reason why the level of Chinese public interest in this election appears lower than in the previous two votes, he said.

View from the top

Whoever wins the US race, Communist Party leaders likely expect there will be little improvement in tense ties, analysts said.

“Looking to the future, regardless of whether Harris or Trump becomes the next US president, the continuity in US policy toward China will almost certainly outweigh any potential major shifts,” said Shi Yinhong, an international relations professor at Renmin University in Beijing.

Beijing is careful not to directly comment on any views of the election, but likely sees Trump as bringing more uncertainly – and thus risk – into the relationship. The former president has threatened upwards of 60% tariffs on all imports from China and is known for his volatile foreign policy.

But Beijing could see benefit in that if it weakens US overseas partnerships, observers say. The Biden administration has sought to work more closely with allies in Europe and Asia to counter what it sees as the “most serious long-term challenge to the international order” – China, while Trump has repeatedly questioned traditional US alliances.

Chinese leaders will also be closely watching how a Trump presidency would handle the war in Ukraine – with Beijing likely wary of him taking steps to mend US relations with Russia and President Vladimir Putin, a critical ally for Chinese leader Xi Jinping on the global stage. The end of that war – which Trump has claimed he can quickly achieve – would also likely bring more US focus back to Asia-Pacific, which China doesn’t want to see.

But Trump is still seen in Beijing’s policy circles as likely to drive a more fractious relationship with China than Harris would.

The vice president is expected to tread a similar path to that laid by Biden – maintaining pressure on China to limit the development of its technology and military, but trying to keep some exchange and dialogue open.

“That means it will be a mixture of tension, friction, and some limited degree of exchanges and cooperation … (while) Trump would present greater challenges to US-China relations. The main issue is that (Trump) handles US-China relations in an unconventional manner, lacking a sense of proportion and boundaries,” said Wu in Shanghai.

“The most you can say is that the challenges to the relationship will vary depending on who is in office.”